The Russian-Ukrainian project ASTROMETRIA to measurement of temporary variations of the shape and diameter of the Sun - the total solar irradiance, as well as of the fine structure and dynamics of the granulation on the Russian segment of the International Space Station

The maximal amplitude of the total solar irradiance (TSI) variations reaches 0.1% during 11-year cycle, its influence on climate is flattened and practically is not evident due to thermal inertia of Earth. However, in case of continuation in significant increase or decrease of the amplitude of a TSI variation for two 11-year cycles consequently, its influence will inevitably be expressed in a corresponding smooth change in climate. An absolute TSI value measured at the minimum of the current 11-year cycle also progressively (nowadays) diminishes after cycle 21. As expected, a similar correlated decrease for the same period was observed for two-century-long variations of solar activity. Earlier we directly revealed for the first time the two-century-long component in TSI variations (Abdussamatov H.I. KPhCB. 2005. 21. 328).


Variations of the total solar irradiance over the period from 1978 to 2007 ( (solid curve) 11-year variations, (dashed curve) two-hundred-year cyclical variations (Abdussamatov H.I. Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies KPhCB. 2007, 23, 97)

The absolute value of TSI reached its maximum in 1990th and began to drop afterwards, and a minimum of a two-century-long cycle will be reached by approximately 204111. However, heat is accumulated first of all by the ocean and it determines Earth climate as it has a huge heat capacity and corresponding thermal inertia. Due to ocean thermal inertia Earth feels two-century-long changes in TSI with a time lag of 175 years. Therefore, currently observed falling TSI cannot yet exert significant influence on expected decrease of Earth global temperature, but will not determine further elevation of temperature. We continue to bask in remains of heat of the planet accumulated over 20th century since thermal inertia of Earth determines the global warming we have observe recently. Global cooling will come relatively soon as the planet having received increased solar energy over almost all 20th century, now gradually gives it back. This is confirmed by unexpected for climatologists cooling of the upper ocean which began in 2003-2005 (J.M. Lyman, J.K. Willis, and G. C. Johnson, 2006). To our regret, currently existing climatic models cannot project climate changes depending on observed two-century-long variations of TSI. We expect that after cooling of the upper ocean in 5-8 years (namely, in a decline phase of the 24th cycle in 2012-2015) earthmen will feel a very slow beginning of global cooling, and after decades its more active phase. Due to thermal inertia of the Earth only after 15-20 years after beginning in about 2041 of a deep minimum of TSI in 2055-2060 the next climatic minimum and deep cooling of Earth climate will begin (Abdussamatov. About the long-term coordinated variations of the activity, radius, total irradiance of the Sun and the Earths climate // Proceedings of IAU Symposium. 2004. No. 223. pp. 541-542; On long-term variations of the total irradiance and decrease of global temperature of the Earth after a maximum of 24 cycle of activity and irradiance // Proceedings of the All-Russian Conference in Troitsk ''Experimental and analytical investigations of the bases of prediction heliogeophysical of activity''. IZMIRAN. 2006. pp. 3-8 (in Russian); On decreasing a total irradiance and downturn of the global temperature of the Earth up to a global cooling in the middle 21 centuries // Bulletin of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory - Izv. Krym. Astrofiz. Observ.. (in Russian). 2007. Vol. 103. No. 4. pp. 292-298; Monitoring the shape and diameter of the Sun on the service module of the Russian segment of the ISS // J. Opt. Technol. 2006. 73(4), 236-241). If so, temperature will be down up to so-called Maunders minimum and will stay at this level for about 45-65 years. After that period of intense cold the next cycle of global warming will begin only at the beginning of the 22nd century and temperature on the planet will start rising gradually. A preliminary scenario of falling average global temperature of the ocean surface in the 21st century and the beginning of the next two-century-long cycle of global climate warming at the beginning of the 22nd century are shown at the figure.


Scenario of the deep cooling of the climate

Thus, currently observed global warming is a consequence of gradual continuous increase during almost all 20th century of TSI and its unusually high absolute value. Such a profound growth in TSI and solar activity as in 20th century was observed only in 11th-12th centuries in a period of the mediaeval global warming. Nonetheless, this was a routine but not an abnormal event as global warmings similar to the current one were observed earlier. Eddy (1976, 1977) on a long-term scale (century or more) revealed a significant correlation (in both phase and amplitude) between periods of profound changes in solar activity and corresponding historical changes in Earths climate over the last millennium. Besides, cycle changes of climate were not so radical, but were sufficient to influence life of nations and states and to induce economical and demographic crises. During every of 18 profound minimums of solar activity (of a Maunders type with a quasi-two-hundred-year period revealed over last 7,500 years) there was a deep global cooling, and during every of profound maximums of solar activity a global warming (Borisenkov, 1988). Therefore, at any time period century variations in solar activity and TSI had practically correlated (quasi-parallel) directions. These correlations also point at identity (both in phase and amplitude) of two-century-long alterations in TSI and the sunspot number. Therefore, a change in Earths global temperature always followed after corresponding two-century-long variations in solar activity and TSI.

The observable 11-year and two secular cyclic variations of the total solar irradiance S
8 = s R82 Tef4 / A2 is caused by respective alterations of the radius R8 and effective temperature T ef of the photosphere, which are a consequence of fundamental global processes occurring deeply inside (A - the astronomical unit):

DS8 / S8 = 2 DR8 / R8 + 4 DTef / Tef .

The 11-year and two seculars cyclic variations of the total solar irradiance almost entirely results from respective alterations of the area of the photosphere radiating surface as its effective temperature keeps practically constant (Abdussamatov H.I. Proceedings of IAU Symposium. 2004. No. 223. P. 541; KPhCB. 2005. 21, 328; Journal of Optical Technology. 2006. 73, 236):

DS8 / S8 2 DR8 / R8 .

Hence, 11-year and two seculars heliocycles represents the simultaneous coordinated fluctuation of the activity, radius and irradiance both for the phase and amplitude.


The variations of the solar constant (from Frohlich C.
and the sunspot number with time from 1978 to 2005

The duration of 11-year cycles depends on a phase of the two secular cycle and generally grows over the period from the rising phase to the maximum and descending phases of the two secular cycle. This fact proves once again that the 11-year cycles are genetically related to the two secular cycle and that the two secular cycle determines the regularities in the development of the filial 11-year cycles (Abdussamatov H.I. KPhCB. 2006. 22, 141).


Duration of 11-year cycles as a function of the secular cycle phase (cycles 10-22)

The two secular cyclic component also is found in variations of the total solar irradiance. We suppose that the observable long-term identical variations of activity, radius and irradiance are a result of the same processes occurring deeply inside and are coordinated by a global variation of the entire Sun which is caused by cyclic changes of temperature in the Suns core. As this takes place, the long-term global variations of the whole Sun can serve the catalyst of the generation of solar cycles. We predict the approach of the following sufficiently deep minimum of activity, irradiance and radius of the 200-year cycle of the Sun near the year of 204111. The minimum will be close to the level of the Maunder Minimum (Abdussamatov H.I. KPhCB. 2005. 21, 328; KPhCB. 2007. 23, 97).


(Solid curves) solar activity variations over the period from 1700 to 2007 and (dashed curves) our predictions for the period from 2008 to 2041: (thin curve) 11-year variations, (thick curve) two secular variations

A downward trend of the two secular total solar irradiance (TSI) observed from the middle 1990s will be first noticeable on the Mars. Since there is no ocean on the Mars, its thermal inertia is significantly lower. Hence, the cooling on Mars will start earlier than on the Earth. That is why confirmation of a future cooling of the Earth can be obtained beforehand on the Mars. Cessation of the temperature rise on the Mars surface will be a portent of global cooling on the Earth. The global upward trend of temperature caused by significant and prolonged rise of TSI in the 20th century took place on the Mars simultaneously with that on the Earth.

Temperatures on Earth have stabilized in the past decade, and the planet should brace itself for a new Ice Age rather than global warming. The global temperatures in 2007 were practically similar to those in 2006, and, in general, identical to 1998-2006 temperatures, which, basically, means that the Earth passed the peak of global warming in 1998-2005.


Variations of the Earth's global temperature

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has risen more than 4% in the past decade, but global warming has practically stopped. It confirms the theory of "solar" impact on changes in the Earth's climate, because the amount of solar energy reaching the planet has drastically decreased during the same period. Had global temperatures directly responded to concentrations of "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, they would have risen by at least 0.1 Celsius in the past ten years, however, it never happened. A year ago, many meteorologists predicted that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the year 2007 the hottest in the last decade, but, fortunately, these predictions did not become reality. Hence, increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is not the cause of global warming which has a solar origin and is a part of natural two-century cycle. In 2008, global temperatures would drop slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon dioxide reach record levels. By 204111, TSI will reach its minimum according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth approximately in 2055-2060 (11). It will last for about 45-65 years. By the mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice Age, similar to the Maunder Minimum, because the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041. The Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715, when only about 50 spots appeared on the Sun, as opposed to the typical 40,000-50,000 spots. It coincided with the middle and coldest part of the so called Little Ice Age, during which
Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. However, the thermal inertia of the world's oceans and seas will delay a deep cooling of the planet, and the new Ice Age will begin sometime during 2055-2060, probably lasting for several decades. Therefore, the Earth must brace itself for a growing ice cap, rather than rising waters in global oceans caused by ice melting. Mankind will face serious economic, social, and demographic consequences of the coming Ice Age because it will directly affect more than 80% of the earth's population.

The coming cooling will lead to significant increase of the glacial and snow cover and decrease of the concentration of water vapor (a main greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere. This will result in decrease of both the absorption ability of the Earth and the greenhouse effect. In this case strong additional cooling will take place due to these factors indirectly connected with decay of TSI.

So, the direct influence of the change two centuries of the cycle TSI provides near the half of the change of the Earths global temperature. The rest half of the change of the global temperature of the Earth occurs because of indirect influence TSI.

As a consequence of prolonged increase and unusually high level of TSI in the 20th century (and correspondent global warming of climate on the Earth and Mars), the surfaces of these planets began to absorb more solar energy due to lowering of albedo of their underlaying surfaces. Beside this, global warming has resulted in the rise of natural concentration of the water vapor and carbon dioxide in the Earth atmosphere. All these factors have led to additional increase of temperature on the Earth, comparable to direct influence of two centuries cycle of the TSI rise during in the 20th century. Due to these effects additional temperature rise on the Earth took place in spite of insignificant changes of TSI during this period.

Warming on the Mars observed during 6 years from 1999 to 2005 was not caused by the change of the form of its orbit which could lead to the rise of TSI. The form of the orbit and the tilt of axis of both the Mars and the Earth varies on the timescale of tens thousands of years and these variations cannot increase the value of solar irradiance of the Mars during so short period of time (6 years). The recently observed dust storms on the Mars can result from prolonged effect of unusually high level of TSI and corresponding warming of the planet surface, as well as from the rise of absorption ability and uneven warming of different regions of its mountainous surface. That is why it is very important to continue temperature monitoring on the Mars by the NASA specialists.

Simultaneous warming on both the Earth and the Mars, and a number of other planets of the Solar system shows that global warming on our planet has a natural solar origin. There exists no reliable scientific evidence that anthropogenic increase of the carbon dioxide concentration has caused current global warming or can lead to catastrophic changes of the Earth climate in the visible future.

If in 2008-2010 cessation of the global warming continues, this will provide indisputable evidence in favor of assertion that the Sun cannot warm the Earth as before, and the anthropogenic global warming is a Great Myth.

The russian-ukrainian project Astrometria on the the Service Module of the Russian segment of the ISS will provide during more than 6 years simultaneous measurement of variations of the solar shape and the solar angular diameter with an accuracy ~0.005 arcsec, an oblateness of the disk with an accuracy ~10-6 R
8 to investigate the nature of their variations and spectrum global oscillations of the Sun (Abdussamatov H.I. Journal of Optical Technology. 2006. 73, 236; Abdussamatov H.I. et al. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics. 2007. 71, 596). The project supposes a research of an internal structure and dynamics of the Sun and installation of change of the global characteristics down to the core. The project also provides research both of the fine structure of the photosphere and its dynamics both on the disk, and on the extreme limb. The simultaneous supervision of the fine structure of the extreme limb and two central separate areas of the solar disk will be executed by invented of a new space optical telescope - 200 mm solar limbograph SL-200 (Abdussamatov H.I. Patent of Russian Federation on invention, No. 2158946, 2000).


The Solar limbograph SL-200

The artificial Moon situated in the intermediate focus of the SL-200 simulates an annular solar eclipse. The "moon" has special holes for simultaneous research of the two small photosphere regions. SL-200 is equipped by the mirror crystal light filter (MCLF) on the entrance pupil and by heliophotomicrometer (HPhMM) placed in image-side focus. The MCLF and the "moon" by screening and removing out of the limits of the SL-200 more than 99% of the total solar radiation. Thermotolerant the optics-mechanical structure of the SL-200 will ensure stably high quality of optics and other characteristics of the optics-reception block of its as a whole during experiment. The star calibration of scale of the image in the focal place of the SL-200 is provided. The project is supposed to be carried out at first of rise of activity of the next solar cycle.


The Solar limbograph SL-200 on the Service Module of the Russian segment of the ISS

Head of the Space Research Laboratory of the Russian Academies of Sciences' Pulkovo Observatory
and of the International Space Station's Russian-Ukrainian Astrometria project

Habibullo I. Abdussamatov

22.12.2005 (renovated 07.07.2007)


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