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The Russian-Ukrainian project
ASTROMETRIA to measurement of temporary variations of the shape and diameter
of the Sun - the total solar irradiance, as well as of the fine structure and
dynamics of the granulation on the Russian segment of the International Space
Station
The maximal amplitude of
the total solar irradiance (TSI) variations reaches 0.1% during 11-year cycle, its influence on climate is flattened and
practically is not evident due to thermal inertia of Earth. However, in case
of continuation in significant increase or decrease of the amplitude of a TSI
variation for two 11-year cycles consequently, its influence will inevitably
be expressed in a corresponding smooth change in climate. An absolute TSI
value measured at the minimum of the current 11-year cycle also progressively
(nowadays) diminishes after cycle 21. As expected, a similar correlated
decrease for the same period was observed for two-century-long variations of
solar activity. Earlier we directly revealed for the first time the
two-century-long component in TSI variations (Abdussamatov
H.I. KPhCB. 2005. 21. 328).
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Variations of the total solar irradiance over the
period from 1978 to 2007 (www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant): (solid curve) 11-year
variations, (dashed curve) two-hundred-year cyclical variations (Abdussamatov H.I.
Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies KPhCB. 2007, 23, 97)
The absolute value of TSI reached its maximum in 1990th and began to drop
afterwards, and a minimum of a two-century-long cycle will be reached by
approximately 2041±11. However, heat is accumulated first of all by the ocean
and it determines Earth climate as it has a huge heat capacity and
corresponding thermal inertia. Due to ocean thermal inertia Earth “feels”
two-century-long changes in TSI with a time lag of 17±5 years. Therefore,
currently observed falling TSI cannot yet exert significant influence on
expected decrease of Earth global temperature, but will not determine further
elevation of temperature. We continue to bask in remains of heat of the
planet accumulated over 20th century since thermal inertia of Earth
determines the global warming we have observe recently. Global cooling will
come relatively soon as the planet having received increased solar energy
over almost all 20th century, now gradually gives it back. This is confirmed
by unexpected for climatologists cooling of the upper ocean which began in
2003-2005 (J.M. Lyman, J.K. Willis, and G. C. Johnson, 2006). To our regret,
currently existing climatic models cannot project climate changes depending
on observed two-century-long variations of TSI. We expect that after cooling
of the upper ocean in 5-8 years (namely, in a decline phase of the 24th cycle
in 2012-2015) earthmen will feel a very slow beginning of global cooling, and
after decades – its more active phase. Due to thermal inertia of the Earth
only after 15-20 years after beginning in about 2041 of a deep minimum of TSI
– in 2055-2060 – the next climatic minimum and deep cooling of Earth climate
will begin (Abdussamatov. About the long-term
coordinated variations of the activity, radius, total irradiance of the Sun
and the Earth’s climate // Proceedings of IAU Symposium.
2004. No. 223. pp. 541-542; On long-term variations of the total
irradiance and decrease of global temperature of the Earth after a maximum of
24 cycle of activity and irradiance // Proceedings of the All-Russian
Conference in Troitsk ''Experimental and analytical
investigations of the bases of prediction heliogeophysical
of activity''. IZMIRAN. 2006. pp. 3-8 (in Russian); On decreasing a total
irradiance and downturn of the global temperature of the Earth up to a global
cooling in the middle 21 centuries // Bulletin of the Crimean Astrophysical
Observatory - Izv. Krym. Astrofiz. Observ.. (in Russian). 2007.
Vol. 103. No. 4. pp. 292-298; Monitoring the shape and diameter of the
Sun on the service module of the Russian segment of the ISS // J. Opt.
Technol. 2006. 73(4), 236-241). If so, temperature will be
down up to so-called Maunders minimum and will stay at this level for about
45-65 years. After that period of intense cold the next cycle of global
warming will begin only at the beginning of the 22nd century and temperature
on the planet will start rising gradually. A preliminary scenario of falling
average global temperature of the ocean surface in the 21st century and the
beginning of the next two-century-long cycle of global climate warming at the
beginning of the 22nd century are shown at the figure.
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Scenario of the deep cooling of the climate
Thus, currently observed global warming is a consequence of gradual
continuous increase during almost all 20th century of TSI and its unusually
high absolute value. Such a profound growth in TSI and solar activity as in
20th century was observed only in 11th-12th centuries in a period of the
mediaeval global warming. Nonetheless, this was a routine but not an abnormal
event as global warmings similar to the current one
were observed earlier. Eddy (1976, 1977) on a long-term scale (century or
more) revealed a significant correlation (in both phase and amplitude)
between periods of profound changes in solar activity and corresponding
historical changes in Earth’s climate over the last millennium. Besides,
cycle changes of climate were not so radical, but were sufficient to
influence life of nations and states and to induce economical and demographic
crises. During every of 18 profound minimums of
solar activity (of a Maunders type with a quasi-two-hundred-year period
revealed over last 7,500 years) there was a deep global cooling, and during
every of profound maximums of solar activity – a global warming (Borisenkov, 1988). Therefore, at any time period century
variations in solar activity and TSI had practically correlated
(quasi-parallel) directions. These correlations also point at identity (both
in phase and amplitude) of two-century-long alterations in TSI and the
sunspot number. Therefore, a change in Earth’s global temperature always
followed after corresponding two-century-long variations in solar activity
and TSI.
The observable 11-year and two secular cyclic variations of the total solar
irradiance S8 = s R82 Tef4 / A2 is caused by respective
alterations of the radius R8 and effective temperature T ef of the photosphere, which are a
consequence of fundamental global processes occurring deeply inside (A
- the astronomical unit):
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DS8 / S8 = 2 DR8 / R8 + 4 DTef / Tef .
The 11-year and two seculars cyclic variations of the total solar irradiance
almost entirely results from respective alterations of the area of the
photosphere radiating surface as its effective temperature keeps practically
constant (Abdussamatov H.I. Proceedings of IAU Symposium.
2004. No. 223. P. 541; KPhCB. 2005. 21, 328; Journal of
Optical Technology. 2006. 73, 236):
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DS8 / S8 » 2 DR8 / R8 .
Hence, 11-year and two seculars heliocycles
represents the simultaneous coordinated fluctuation of the activity, radius
and irradiance both for the phase and amplitude.
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The variations of the solar constant (from Frohlich C. www.prodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant)
and the sunspot number with time from 1978 to 2005
The duration of 11-year cycles depends on a phase of the two secular cycle and generally grows over the period from the rising
phase to the maximum and descending phases of the two secular cycle. This
fact proves once again that the 11-year cycles are genetically related to the
two secular cycle and that the two secular cycle determines the regularities
in the development of the filial 11-year cycles (Abdussamatov
H.I. KPhCB. 2006. 22, 141).
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Duration of 11-year cycles as a function of the
secular cycle phase (cycles 10-22)
The two secular cyclic component also is found in
variations of the total solar irradiance. We suppose that the observable
long-term identical variations of activity, radius and irradiance are a
result of the same processes occurring deeply inside and are coordinated by a
global variation of the entire Sun which is caused by cyclic changes of
temperature in the Sun’s core. As this takes place, the long-term global
variations of the whole Sun can serve the catalyst of the generation of solar
cycles. We predict the approach of the following sufficiently deep minimum of
activity, irradiance and radius of the 200-year cycle of the Sun near the
year of 2041±11. The minimum will be close to the level of the Maunder
Minimum (Abdussamatov H.I. KPhCB.
2005. 21, 328; KPhCB. 2007. 23, 97).
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(Solid curves) solar activity variations over the
period from 1700 to 2007 and (dashed curves) our predictions for the period
from 2008 to 2041: (thin curve) 11-year variations, (thick curve) two secular
variations
A downward trend of the two secular total solar irradiance (TSI) observed
from the middle 1990s will be first noticeable on the Mars. Since there is no
ocean on the Mars, its thermal inertia is significantly lower. Hence, the
cooling on Mars will start earlier than on the Earth. That is why
confirmation of a future cooling of the Earth can be obtained beforehand on
the Mars. Cessation of the temperature rise on the Mars surface will be a
portent of global cooling on the Earth. The global upward trend of
temperature caused by significant and prolonged rise of TSI in the 20th
century took place on the Mars simultaneously with that on the Earth.
Temperatures on Earth have stabilized in the past decade, and the planet
should brace itself for a new Ice Age rather than global warming. The global
temperatures in 2007 were practically similar to those in 2006, and, in
general, identical to 1998-2006 temperatures, which, basically, means that
the Earth passed the peak of global warming in 1998-2005.
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Variations of the Earth's global temperature
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has risen more
than 4% in the past decade, but global warming has practically stopped. It
confirms the theory of "solar" impact on changes in the Earth's
climate, because the amount of solar energy reaching the planet has
drastically decreased during the same period. Had global temperatures
directly responded to concentrations of "greenhouse" gases in the
atmosphere, they would have risen by at least 0.1 Celsius in the past ten
years, however, it never happened. A year ago, many meteorologists predicted
that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the year
2007 the hottest in the last decade, but, fortunately, these predictions did
not become reality. Hence, increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere is not the cause of global warming which has a solar origin and is
a part of natural two-century cycle. In 2008, global temperatures would drop
slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the
past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of
carbon dioxide reach record levels. By 2041±11, TSI will reach its minimum
according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth
approximately in 2055-2060 (±11). It will last for about 45-65 years. By the
mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice Age, similar to the
Maunder Minimum, because the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth has
been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum
approximately in 2041. The Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715,
when only about 50 spots appeared on the Sun, as opposed to the typical
40,000-50,000 spots. It coincided with the middle and coldest part of the so
called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. However,
the thermal inertia of the world's oceans and seas will delay a “deep
cooling” of the planet, and the new Ice Age will begin sometime during
2055-2060, probably lasting for several decades. Therefore, the Earth must
brace itself for a growing ice cap, rather than rising waters in global
oceans caused by ice melting. Mankind will face serious economic, social, and
demographic consequences of the coming Ice Age because it will directly
affect more than 80% of the earth's population.
The coming cooling will lead to significant increase of the glacial and snow
cover and decrease of the concentration of water vapor (a main greenhouse
gas) in the atmosphere. This will result in decrease of both the absorption
ability of the Earth and the greenhouse effect. In this case strong
additional cooling will take place due to these factors indirectly connected
with decay of TSI.
So, the direct influence of the change two centuries of the cycle TSI
provides near the half of the change of the Earth’s global temperature. The
rest half of the change of the global temperature of the Earth occurs because
of indirect influence TSI.
As a consequence of prolonged increase and unusually high level of TSI in the
20th century (and correspondent global warming of climate on the Earth and
Mars), the surfaces of these planets began to absorb more solar energy due to
lowering of albedo of their underlaying
surfaces. Beside this, global warming has resulted in the rise of natural
concentration of the water vapor and carbon dioxide in the Earth atmosphere.
All these factors have led to additional increase of temperature on the
Earth, comparable to direct influence of two centuries cycle of the TSI rise
during in the 20th century. Due to these effects additional temperature rise
on the Earth took place in spite of insignificant changes of TSI during this
period.
Warming on the Mars observed during 6 years from 1999 to 2005 was not caused
by the change of the form of its orbit which could lead to the rise of TSI.
The form of the orbit and the tilt of axis of both the Mars and the Earth varies on the timescale of tens thousands of years and
these variations cannot increase the value of solar irradiance of the Mars
during so short period of time (6 years). The recently observed dust storms
on the Mars can result from prolonged effect of unusually high level of TSI
and corresponding warming of the planet surface, as well as from the rise of
absorption ability and uneven warming of different regions of its mountainous
surface. That is why it is very important to continue temperature monitoring
on the Mars by the NASA specialists.
Simultaneous warming on both the Earth and the Mars, and a number of other
planets of the Solar system shows that global warming on our planet has a
natural solar origin. There exists no reliable scientific evidence that
anthropogenic increase of the carbon dioxide concentration has caused current
global warming or can lead to catastrophic changes of the Earth climate in
the visible future.
If in 2008-2010 cessation of the global warming continues, this will provide
indisputable evidence in favor of assertion that the Sun cannot warm the
Earth as before, and the anthropogenic global warming is a Great Myth.
The russian-ukrainian project Astrometria
on the the Service Module of the Russian segment of
the ISS will provide during more than 6 years simultaneous measurement of
variations of the solar shape and the solar angular diameter with an accuracy
~0.005 arcsec, an oblateness
of the disk with an accuracy ~10-6 R8 to investigate the nature of
their variations and spectrum global oscillations of the Sun (Abdussamatov H.I. Journal of Optical Technology. 2006. 73,
236; Abdussamatov H.I. et al. Bulletin
of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics. 2007. 71, 596).
The project supposes a research of an internal structure and dynamics of the
Sun and installation of change of the global characteristics down to the
core. The project also provides research both of the fine structure of the
photosphere and its dynamics both on the disk, and on the extreme limb. The
simultaneous supervision of the fine structure of the extreme limb and two central
separate areas of the solar disk will be executed by invented of a new space
optical telescope - 200 mm solar limbograph SL-200
(Abdussamatov H.I. Patent of Russian Federation on invention, No. 2158946, 2000).
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The Solar limbograph
SL-200
The artificial Moon situated in the intermediate focus of the SL-200
simulates an annular solar eclipse. The "moon" has special holes for
simultaneous research of the two small photosphere regions. SL-200 is
equipped by the mirror crystal light filter (MCLF) on the entrance pupil and
by heliophotomicrometer (HPhMM)
placed in image-side focus. The MCLF and the "moon" by screening
and removing out of the limits of the SL-200 more than 99% of the total solar
radiation. Thermotolerant the optics-mechanical
structure of the SL-200 will ensure stably high quality of optics and other
characteristics of the optics-reception block of its
as a whole during experiment. The star calibration of scale of the image in
the focal place of the SL-200 is provided. The project is supposed to be
carried out at first of rise of activity of the next solar cycle.
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The Solar limbograph
SL-200 on the Service Module of the Russian segment of the ISS
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Head of the Space Research
Laboratory of the Russian Academies of Sciences' Pulkovo
Observatory
and of the International Space Station's Russian-Ukrainian Astrometria project
Habibullo I. Abdussamatov
E-mail: abduss@gao.spb.ru
22.12.2005 (renovated 07.07.2007)
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